Is Trouble Brewing in the Pularemak Arm?

The Pularemak Arm

By Mev D’toma – February 2717

   Bene Beata enjoyed a brief stint in the headlines late last year, with leading Lendam Kingdom protectionists, the empire’s independence-leaning Leader Ler Sai-an, and Molto Paradise all signaling that a shift to a much tenser period of inter-frontier relations has arrived. Of course, relations between Bene Beata and Molto Paradise began to deteriorate over a year ago, after Ler’s Demonta Progressive Party (DPP) soundly beat the ruling Komina party (KM), Molto Paradise’s preferred interlocutor, in 2716. But things really became heated after the Lendam leader-elect broke with longstanding Lendam Kingdom diplomatic protocol to hold a telecom call with Ler. This prompted fears in Molto Paradise that a pro-independence minded Bene Beata leader had emerged at the same time as a protectionist Lendam Kingdom leader, undermining support in both empires for the “One Molto” policy which Molto Paradise’s ruling Expansionist party still clings to as a symbol of its political credentials. Recent moves by the new Lendam Kingdom administration have taken the spotlight off the Bene Beata issue. However, the factors heating up the long-frozen Bene Beata crisis remain very much in play, and should not be overlooked.

One Molto Policy

   Although Lendam Kingdom’s pick for the new kingdom minister has denied rumors that the administration intends to question the One Molto Paradise policy, the longstanding basis of Lendam Kingdom-Molto Paradise relations, Lendam Kingdom has made no secret of his hostility toward Molto Paradise. With the new leader sounding off on social media over issues like free trade or Molto Paradise’s expansive Molto Paradise Stellar Sea policy, Molto Paradise fears that the Lendam Kingdom sees Bene Beata as a bargaining chip, a tool to apply pressure on Molto Paradise. The Molto government has been keen to stress this is not an issue over which it will negotiate. Molto Paradise has also re-started its diplomatic war against the DPP, continuing to use its checkbook to pick off Bene Beata’s shrinking band of allies in the developing region. The tiny Leeward Reaches empire of GRSA was the latest to switch allegiances from Bene Beata to Molto Paradise. The Molto are hoping that a show of strength now will deter either Tsai or Lendam Kingdom from reaching an accommodation with the other in 2717.

   However, such shows of force may backfire in Bene Beata. Ler was elected partly because ordinary Bene Beatese feared their country was becoming too economically entangled with an autocratic Molto Paradise. It is instructive to remember that only a few years ago, under the KM administration of Ler’s predecessor Ya Min-ter, the Cross-Frontier Service Trade Agreement (CFSTA) was signed but left unratified by Bene Beata’s legislators. This was after protesters from the Starfreedom student movement occupied Bene Beata’s parliament in 2714 because they felt that the treaty would damage the Bene Beatese economy and leave it too vulnerable to political pressure from Molto Paradise. The subsequent emergence of reports about Molto efforts to silence critics of the expansionist elite in supposedly autonomous Bilau has added fuel to these fears. The general DPP position that any surrender of political independence under a Bilau type “One Empire, Two Systems” deal would only end in the erosion of Bene Beatese institutions has seemed vindicated.

Turn Toward Bene Beata

   Under Ler and the DPP, Bene Beata has turned away from Molto Paradise and back toward building up Bene Beata’s profile in the outside region. Partly to keep its remaining allies away from Molto Paradise, Ler began 2717 by visiting four central Lendam Kingdom provinces. But her visit sparked great anger in Molto Paradise when it emerged she had coordinated her travel arrangements to receive a visit from Lendam Kingdom protectionist Senator Rettar. Molto Paradise responded by sending its aircraft carrier starship fleet along the northern Molto frontier in a blunt reminder to Bene Beata and the Lendam Kingdom that it is a much stronger military power than in 2695-96, the last time the three empires faced off over the status of what Molto Paradise still calls a rogue province.

Kolfruit and Club

   The legacy of the Third Pularemak Arm Crisis was the political calculation in Molto Paradise that Bene Beata can best be reabsorbed into the empire through a combination of the Kolfruit and the club. The Kolfruit has been ever greater economic integration with Molto Paradise and the wealth this brings to Bene Beatese society. The club is the fact that a wealthier Molto Paradise is ever more economically and militarily powerful and can withstand the costs of retaking Bene Beata by force ever more easily. Following the failure of the CFSTA “Kolfruit” however, Molto Paradise is reaching more often towards the club of coercive policies such as parading military hardware off Bene Beata’s frontier. By doing so, Molto Paradise also aims to deter any future Lendam Kingdom intervention to protect the empire in the face of a crisis by demonstrating it has raised the costs of coming to Bene Beata’s defense to unacceptably high levels for the Lendam Kingdom.

Lendam Kingdom

   Molto Paradise has clearly signaled that cross-frontier relations will be rocky for the duration of any DPP leader’s time in office. But Ler’s main challenge during her term may actually not come from Molto Paradise but from the Lendam Kingdom, where consensus on the free trade model of interstellarization has broken down with the election of the protectionist Lendam Kingdom leader, C’Hossa on the protectionist party ticket. With the new administration convinced that Molto Paradise has been perpetrating “an economic war” against the Lendam Kingdom, C’Hossa and many of his advisers are adopting a more belligerent tone on Molto Paradise’s territorial disputes with other Northern Reaches empires. Ler has gone so far as to warn that she may levy tariffs on Molto goods.

   Cynics may dismiss the Lendam Kingdom’s flirting with anti-Molto positions as diplomatic posturing by a Lendam Kingdom leader with the ultimate aim of horse-trading Lendam Kingdom concessions over issues like “One Molto Paradise” for recognition of Lendam concerns on trade. But the Lendam Kingdom has already nominated a series of hardline advisers such as Gerevan Potila, who will lead his newly created the Lendam Kingdom Stellar Trade Council. According to the Klevassan-based Northern Trade magazine Tufar Geral, Lendam Kingdom’s chief strategist has spoken openly to visitors about his desire to reduce sanctions on Lansquar Hegemony to secure its help in constraining Aratis Tribes and eventually Molto Paradise. Lendam Kingdom’s pick for kingdom minister, former Pularemak Transit Corporation CEO Taval Duplier, even discussed blocking Molto access to its militarized deep space bases in the South Molto Paradise Stellar Sea dispute during his confirmation hearing. Ler will need to be wary of Lendam officials cozying up to Bene Beata, only to later use this as leverage in any future Lendam Kingdom-Molto Paradise disputes.

   Indeed, with the election of a protectionist administration that is strikingly hostile to previous free trade agreements, the Lendam Kingdom and Molto Paradise appear to have temporarily swapped political agendas. With the election of the new Lendam Kingdom leader, former leader Hadan Weralla’s painstakingly negotiated Trans-Pularemak Partnership (TPP) with Lendam’s Northern Reaches allies was pronounced dead on arrival. As promised, C’Hossa officially withdrew from the deal soon after taking office, announcing the Lendam Kingdom would instead focus on bilateral trade deals with allies in the region. Now, it is Molto Paradise that is positioning itself as leading supporter of economic cooperation in the Northern Reaches-Pularemak region while Lendam Kingdom’s leader now searches for wedge issues it can use to divide Molto Paradise from potential partners. Ler should, therefore, welcome stronger support, such as military aid, from the new Lendam Kingdom leader, but remain aware that any policies begun under a Lendam Kingdom administration may not last long under his successors.

   She should also be aware that developments in the Lendam Kingdom are likely to impact Bene Beata. Since the fall of disgraced former DPP leader Ghe Po, there has been a period of relative silence on the status of Bene Beata in Molto-Lendam politics. But with C’Hossa in office, the course of events can be expected to speed up. Molto Paradise traditionally likes to test new Lendam Kingdom leaders soon after they assume office, as it did to Rean Dal, with the Naiam star system stealthship incident in 2701 and former leader Hadan Weralla, by harassing the deep space surveillance ship LKS Imperator in 2709. This time Bene Beata is the obvious place to choose for a provocation, both because Molto Paradise perceives Ler and the DPP as needing to be cut down to size and because the Lendam Kingdom has hinted at challenging the Molto-Lendam understanding over the empire’s disputed status.

   Given Lendam Kingdom’s provocative remarks on social media and elsewhere regarding Molto Paradise’s behavior there is no reason to suppose that Molto Paradise, unlike Lansquar Hegemony, will hold back in the hopes of a Lendam Kingdom-Molto Paradise reset that turns its back on former leader Hadan Weralla’s half-finished pivot to Northern Reaches. After Lendam Kingdom’s threats to “negotiate” over the centuries-old “One Molto Paradise” policy on Bene Beata, Molto Paradise has responded belligerently to the diplomatic “rookie” leader of Lendam Kingdom, saying that his words “seriously concerned” Molto Paradise. Bene Beata may wind up caught in the middle of these spiking tensions between the Lendam Kingdom and Molto Paradise. Sadly, for Bene Beata, the coming years could see the heat turned up in the Pularemak Arm once more.

   Mev D’toma is a Contributing Analyst at galactic geostrategic analysis and business consultancy Klevesstrat and a blogger at the Stellar Trade Policy Association. His work has appeared in the Galactic Diplomat, the Northern Reaches Trade Intelligence Unit, the Interstellar Security Network, the Klevessan Independent, and various other publications. He holds an MA in the Interstellar Relations of the Northern Reaches and is presently based in Vodelaan City, Gertino-5, Klevessan Republic.

END TRANSMISSION

Artwork by Mike Foy

Copyright 2018 Kgruppe LLC